So, if 50 is the new 40 then is 60 the new 50 ? Here is what Google says:
- 60 is the new 50 got 3430 hits.
- 70 is the new 60 got 788 hits.
- 80 is the new 70 got 860 hits.
- 90 is the new 80 got 193 hits.
- 100 is the new 90 got 8 hits.
- 110 is the new 100 got 2 hits.
- 120 is the new 110 got 0 hits. You're 120! You don't look a day over 110!
My intuition says that 120 is not the new 110. In fact, I think that 100 is still 100. So we are looking for a function f such that
- f(50)=40
- for all x ≥ 100, f(x)=x
- g_{1}(x) = the life expectancy of someone who was x years old in 1950
- g_{2}(x) = the life expectancy of someone who was x years old in 2008
With some rigorous definition you could really answer this question. But it may be more fun to put your math hat aside and just see what your intuition tells you. Mine says
- 50 is the new 40.
- 60 is the new 52.
- 70 is the new 64. (will you still need me, will you still feed me, when I'm 70?)
- 80 is the new 76.
- 90 is the new 88.
- 100 is the new 100. Or the old 100.
To me the inverse is the more relevant question. At what age should someone be having their x-life crisis? When should I start feeling like I'm 50?
ReplyDeleteIf we extend Bill's function, it can also explain the phenomenon of so many young adults moving back in with their parents rather than setting off on their own. After all, now 40 is the new 28, and 30 is the new 16.
ReplyDeleteAnd the implications for college campuses of 20 being the new 4 are staggering. :-)
Well, here's some data, from:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html
If you define : "x is the new y if
g1(x) = g2(y)" then, by doing interpolation, we get:
10 is the new 0
20 is the new 13
30 is the new 22
40 is the new 32
50 is the new 42
60 is the new 53
70 is the new 63
80 is the new 74
90 is the new 88
Of course this is only a first-order approximation since
by the time you move from 50 to 60,
60 becomes even younger.
So life-expectancy has greatly
increased, unless you're pretty old - if we want to keep this trend, we must fight aging:
http://www.fightaging.org/
The average age of a first-award NIH R01 award has risen to 42 (!)
ReplyDeleteSscientifically speaking, this means "42 is the new 25". :(
Hi, Bill.
ReplyDelete70 is not the new 60, if we view it democratically. 70 is the new 50 (3170 hits and, as I recall, the caption of a great New Yorker cartoon).
Perhaps your function should be multivalued.
The function is more complex at the low end too.
ReplyDeleteI read that girls are beginning puberty in the US at 7-8.
So that means 8 is the new 14.
Only gets 3 results though and those are talking about the size of women's clothing(thats using the search sentence as a single string in quotes)
So typical of Yahoo: accuracy be damned. The ACTUAL PHRASE IS :*40* IS THE NEW *50* (remove the caps and asterisks, and THAT phrase returns *OVER 86 MILLION HITS*). It originated in CANADA, due to a proposed change in retirement age, and refers to people over 40 being discriminated against in hiring as badly as people over 50 were a few years ago, as a result of that change. Yahoo is heading downhill SO fast, Microsoft will probably end up buying y'all out, or something.
ReplyDeleteI am 70, dateing a woman who is
ReplyDelete45=30 year difference.
Will this "50 is the new 40"
improve my bedroonm performance?
Well, all I can say is, my website is FiftyIsTheNewForty.net, so I'm not sure HOW I feel about the numbers you put up there!!
ReplyDelete