(Lance says that whenever I write `this is a non-partisan post' its partisan anyway.)
I've had posts on predicting VPs before:
In this post I looked at a Nate Silver column a few months ago where they were trying to predict the democratic VP nomination before the Prez nominee was known. Some of what they said seems relevant.
In this post I PREDICTED that bets on INTRADE would not do well on picking VPs since VP picks are hard to predict and often are not from anyone's short list. I DID NOT PREDICT that INTRADE would go out of business.
I came across a statistic recently that seems relevant and inspired this post. Actually this post asks IS this statistic relevant?
From Prez candidate Harry Truman to Prez candidate Hillary Clinton there have been 15 Dem VP nominees (not counting incumbents) of which 13 have been Senators:
Harry Truman(Prez)-Alben Barkely. Sen from Kentucky
Adelaide Stevenson(Gov-Illinois) -John Sparkman. Sen from Alabama
Adelaide Stevenson(Gov-Illinois)-Estes Kefauver, Sen from Tennessee
John F Kennedy(Sen-Mass)-Lyndon B Johnson, Sen from Texas
Lyndon B Johnson(Prez)-Hubert Humphrey,Sen from Minnesoda
Hubert Humphrey(VP)-Ed Muskie, Sen from Maine
George McGovern Sen-South Dakota)-Sgt Shriver Amb to France, Office of Econ Activity
Jimmy Carter(Gov Georgia)-Walter Mondale- Senator from Minnesota
Walter Mondale(Senator Minnesota)-Geraldine Ferraro Congressperson- NY
Mike Dukakis (Gov Mass), Lloyd Benson-Sen Texas
Bill Clinton(Gov Arkansas), Al Gore Sen from Tennesee
Al Gore (VP), Joe Lieberman Senator from Conn
John Kerry (Sen-Mass), John Edwards Sen from NC
Barack Obama (Sen-Illinois), Joe Biden Sen from Del
Hillary Clinton (Sen-NY), Tom Kaine- Sen Virginia
Of the 15 Dem VP nominees, 13 are Senators
Of the 13 Rep VP nominees, 4 are Senators see here
1) When a gov runs he wants someone with fed experience. That explains 5 of the cases above.
2) Senators tend to be better known than other politicians, so perhaps being well known is what you need. Note on the Republican Side Paul Ryan was a House member but was well known.
3) Why do the Reps and Dems differ on this? Is the sample size too small to make this question interesting?
So here is the question: When trying to predict who the Dem VP will be (this year or any year) should being a Senator give someone a plus? A higher weight in a Neural Net?
Kamela Harris is the favorite on the betting markets. Is this because she is a Senator?
She has a national profile and has already been vetted since she rana serious campaign for Prez in the primaries. So I would say that THATS the reason (and other reasons), not that she is a Senator. But would she have been able to run a serious campaign in the primaries if she wasn't already a Senator? I ask non rhetorically.