Answer to my GROUP ONE/GROUP TWO Prez question

In a prior post I asked what criteria I used to place Prez and VP nominees since 1976 into two groups. 

In the book Abundance I read that since 1984 all of the Democratic nominees for Prez and VP except Tim Walz had gone to law school.  I decided to get data on that, along with Republicans, and also go back to 1976 since leaving out 1980 (Jimmy Carter did not go to law school) seemed like a cheat. So GROUP ONE all went to law school, and GROUP TWO did not. I restate the groups and note which law school and a few other fun facts. There are a few glitches along the way. And then I have comments on the problem and AI (when was the last time there was a blog post that did not mention AI?) 

GROUP ONE:

VP-1976 and 1980. Prez-1984
Walter Mondale. University of Minnesota Law School. 1956.

Prez-1976
Gerald Ford. Has an LLB from Yale. 1941. What is an LLB? Some law degrees were called LLBs in an earlier time. This is a glitch. Some places on the web call it an undergraduate degree in Law (the B stands  for Bachelors) but some say it's equivalent to a JD. Fords's seems to be equivalent to a JD. 

VP-1976. Prez-1996
Bob Dole. Has an LLB from Washburn University in Topeka Kansas in 1952 . See entry on Ford for what an LLB is. From the Wikipedia entry on Bob Dole it seems like the LLB was an undergraduate degree, but its hard to tell. 

VP-1984
Geraldine Ferraro. Fordham University School of Law. 1960.

Prez-1988
Michael Dukakis. Harvard Law School. 1960.

VP-1988
Lloyd Bentson. LLB from the  University of Texas Law School. 1942. See Entry on Ford for what an LLB is. From the Wikipedia entry I cannot tell if it was the equivalent of a JD. 

VP-1988 and 1992
Dan Quayle. Indiana University Robert H. McKinney School of Law. 1974.

Prez-1992 and 1996
Bill Clinton. Yale Law. 1973.

VP-1992 and  1996. Prez-2000
Al Gore.  Vanderbilt University Law School. He quit to run for the House of Representatives. I still count this but it's a glitch. 

VP-2000
Joe Lieberman.  Yale Law School. 1967.

Prez-2004
John Kerry.  Boston College 1976.

VP-2004
John Edwards.  University of North Carolina School of Law. 1977.

Prez-2008 and 2012
Barack Obama.  Harvard Law School. 1991.

Prez-2012
Mitt Romney.  MBA/JD (a joint program) from Harvard. 1975. (This surprised me.)

VP-2008 and 2012. Prez-2020
Joe Biden.  Syracuse University College of Law. 1968.

Prez-2016
Hillary Clinton.  Yale Law School. 1973.

VP-2016
Tim Kaine. Harvard Law School. 1983.

VP-2016 and 2020
Mike Pence. Indiana University Robert H. McKinney School of Law. 1986.

VP-2020. Prez-2024
Kamala Harris. University of California, Hastings College of the Law. 1989.

VP-2024
J.D Vance. Yale Law School. 2013.

The only names that were flagged for being misspelled are Dukakis, Bentson, and Kamala.) 

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GROUP TWO

Prez-1976 and 1980
Jimmy Carter

Prez-1980 and 1984
Ronald Reagan

VP-1980 and 1984, Prez-1988 and 1992.
George H.W. Bush 

(The only people who were nominated for VP twice and Prez twice are John Adams and George H.W. Bush. Richard Nixon was nominated for VP twice and for Prez three times.) 

VP-1996
Jack Kemp

Prez-2000 and 2004
George W. Bush

VP-2000 and 2004
Dick Cheney

Prez-2008
John McCain

VP-2008
Sarah Palin

VP-2012
Paul Ryan (This surprised me.) 

Prez-2016 and 2020 and 2024
Donald Trump

VP-2024
Tim Walz

(The only name flagged for being misspelled was Walz.) 

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Some notes

In these notes I treat Bentson, Dole, Ford, who all got LLB's,  as having gone to law school and finished it.

1) Of the 16 Democrats, 14 went to law school and 13 finished law school.

2) Of the 14 Republicans, 6 went to law school (all finished).

3) The LLB's and the fact that Al Gore started but did not finish law school are examples of edge cases which are cases that are odd outliers which an AI might not have been trained on or know to look for. Over time will these diminish or will we always need humans to help with that? 

4) I was surprised that Mitt Romney had a double-degree MBA/JD since (a) I didn't know there were such things and (b) since he worked at Bain Capital I thought of him as a business person--- MBA--- which is correct but incomplete. 

5) I was surprised that Ford, Dole, and Bentson had LLBs since I never heard of that before.

6) I was surprised that Paul Ryan does not have a law degree. Seems like the type that would have one. 

7) Let LL mean Prez and VP both went to law school. Let LN mean prez went, VP didn't go. NL and NN are obvious. We considered 13 elections. Dems: 10 LL, 2 NL, 1 LN. Reps: 5 NN, 5 NL, 2 LN, 1 LL. Since I was surprised that Romeny went to law school AND I was surprised that Ryan did not, I would have thought 2012 for Reps was NL but it was really LN. 

8) One of the commenters used several AI programs on the question and NONE solved it. Some humans DID solve it. 

a) Some comments suggested that an AI should be able to list several ways the lists differ, and have probabilities of which ones are sensible.  My take: maybe in the future but not now.

b) Is this kind of question fair to ask an AI (or for that matter a person). They have to guess what I have in mind. Be that as it may, the AIs tried on the program.

DID NOT list out a different criteria that was right

but

INSTEAD gave criteria that were just wrong. 

 c) A commenter wrote  that the study was not rigorous. That's correct. So view this blog post as the starting point: study how AI's do on this question and others like it, keeping track of which AI and how the question is posed. Then we will have a better sense. 

9) Is this a sign that AI is not as good as people think OR is it just a hiccup?