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Monday, October 28, 2019

Random non-partisan thoughts on the Prez Election


This post is non-partisan, but in the interest of full disclosure I disclose that I will almost surely be voting for the Democratic Nominee. And I say almost surely because very weird things could happen.I can imagine a republican saying, in 2015 I will almost surely be voting for the Republican Nominee and then later deciding to not vote for Trump.


My Past Predictions: Early on in 2007 I predicted it would be Obama vs McCain and that Obama would win. Was I smart or lucky? Early in 2011 I predicted Paul Ryan would be the Rep. Candidate. Early in 2015 and even into 2016 I predicted that Trump would not get the nomination. After he got the nomination I predicted he would not become president. So, in answer to my first question, I was lucky not smart. Having said all of this I predict that the Dem. candidate will be Warren. Note- this is an honest prediction, not one fueled by what I want to see happen. I predict Warren since she seems to be someone who can bridge the so-called establishment and the so-called left (I dislike the terms LEFT and RIGHT since issues and views change over time). Given my past record I would not take me too seriously. Also, since this prediction is not particularly unusual, if I am right this would NOT be impressive (My Obama prediction was impressive, and my Paul Ryan prediction would have been very impressive had I been right.)

Electability: My spell checker doesn't think its a word. Actually it shouldn't be a word. It's a stupid concept. Recall

JFK was unelectable since he was Catholic.

Ronald Reagan was unelectable because he was too conservative.

A draft dodging adulterer named Bill Clinton could not possible beat a sitting president who just won a popular war.

Nobody named Barack Hussein Obama, who is half-black, could possibly get the nomination, never mind the presidency. And Hillary had the nomination locked up in 2008--- she had no any serious challengers.

(An article in The New Republic in 2007 predicted a brokered convention for the Republicans where Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Guilliani would split the vote, and at the same time a cake walk for Hillary Clinton with
Barak Obama winning Illinois in the primaries but not much else. Recall that 2008 was McCain vs Obama.)

Donald Trump will surely be stopped from getting the nomination because, in the end, The Party Decides.

Republican voters in 2016 will prefer Rubio to Trump since Marco is more electable AND more conservative. Hence, in the space of Rep. Candidates, Rubio dominates Trump. So, by simple game theory, Trump can't get the nomination. The more electable Rubio, in the 2016 primaries, won Minnesota, Wash DC, and Puerto Rico (Puerto Rico has a primary. Really!) One of my friends thought he also won Guam (Guam?) but I could not find evidence of that on the web. Okay, so why did Trump win? Because voters are not game theorists.

ANYWAY, my point is that how can anyone take the notion of electability seriously when unelectable people have gotten elected?

Primaries: Dem primary voters are torn between who they want to be president and who can beat Trump. Since its so hard to tell who can beat who, I would recommend voting for who you like and not say stupid things like

American would never elect a 76 year old socialist whose recently had a heart attack.

or

Trump beat a women in 2016 so we can't nominate a women

or

America is not ready to elect a gay president yet. (America is never ready to do X until after it does X and then the pundits ret-con their opinions.For example, of course America is ready for Gay-Marriage. Duh.)

Who won the debate?
Whoever didn't bother watching it :-). I think the question is stupid and has become who got out a clever sound bite. We need sound policy, not sound bites!

2 comments:

  1. I agree that most people are bad at predicting electability, but as with other unexplained phenomena in nature, I see this as an invitation to look at the data and get better at predicting electability rather than give up on predicting it entirely. See e.g. http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html for one theory.

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  2. Currently betting sites give Warren 45% chance to be the candidate:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

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