tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post3222567344389850699..comments2024-03-27T19:58:17.387-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Random non-partisan thoughts on the Prez ElectionLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-57400161930474889302019-10-28T13:51:54.923-05:002019-10-28T13:51:54.923-05:00Currently betting sites give Warren 45% chance to ...Currently betting sites give Warren 45% chance to be the candidate:<br />https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111domhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05790539025733385232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-30448552096725716962019-10-28T09:56:10.712-05:002019-10-28T09:56:10.712-05:00I agree that most people are bad at predicting ele...I agree that most people are bad at predicting electability, but as with other unexplained phenomena in nature, I see this as an invitation to look at the data and get better at predicting electability rather than give up on predicting it entirely. See e.g. http://www.paulgraham.com/charisma.html for one theory.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10897926193630957407noreply@blogger.com