Monday, November 12, 2018

And the winner is again, Harambe: A pre election poll of my class that was truly a referenum on the Prez

I had meant to post this before the election but I didn't quite time it right. Oh well.

It has been said that this midterm election (more than others) was a referendum on the prez.  Every prez election year I have my students (or someone's students) vote (Secret Ballot of course) for president. ((see 2016 , 2012, 2008) This year, for the first time, I had a midterm election, though rather than ask them which Maryland people they would vote for, I made it truly a referendum on Trump by asking two questions:

1) Who did you vote for in 2016?

2) Knowing what you know now, who would have have voted for in 2016?

Full Disclosure: I am in the Clinton/Clinton Camp. However, this is an information-post not an opinion-post, so my vote is not relevant nor was it counted.

I give the full results at the end of the post; however, I will summarize the most interesting data: the change-mind people and my thoughts.

4 voted Trump and now wish they voted differently: Harmabe, Clinton, Nobody, Gasarch

Only 12 people had voted for Trump in 2016 and of those 4
regret it. While I can see wanting Clinton, Nobody, or Gasarch,
I'm surprised someone wanted Harmabe. Is he even a citizen?

5 voted Clinton and now wish they voted differently: 2-Johnson, Trump, Kanye, Gasarch.

Since Clinton hasn't done anything to merit rejection since the election,
I deduce these people are more going TOWARDS the one they picked rather
than AWAY from her. Trump has been Prez and has done stuff, so Clinton/Trump
makes sense -- the student's opinion is that Trump is doing better
than expected. Gary Johnson hasn't done anything to merit a change towards
him, so thats a puzzler.  Kanye, similar. As for Gasarch, if the reasoning
is `he's doing a good job teaching crypto, lets make him president' doesn't
really work since he's not doing THAT good a job. If it was Ramsey theory
then I could see it.

1 Underwood(House of Cards)/Satan (For those tired of picking the LESSER of two evils)
1 Stein/Clinton
1 Johnson/Clinton
1 Kruskal/Gasarch (some people can't tell them apart)

The two who went to Clinton I interpret as thinking Trump is worse
than expected.

ALSO: Hillary had 28 Hillary/Hillary. Hence Trump had the largest percentage of people who regret voting for him, but still only 1/3. And the numbers are to small to make much of them.



61 students did the poll.

Stayed the same:

Stayed the same:

28 Clinton/Clinton
8 Trump/Trump
4 Stein/Stein
3 Johnson/Johnson
1 Kasich/Kasich
1 Sanders/Sanders
1 Jerry White/Jerry White (Socialist Party)
1 Bofa/Bofa (this is a joke)
1 Thomas Adam Kirkman/Thomas Adam Kirkman (prez on TV show Designated Survivor)

48 do not regret their vote.


1 Trump/Harmabe (Harambe is the Gorilla who got shot in a zoo.)
1 Trump/Clinton
1 Trump/Nobody
1 Trump/Gasarch (Gasarch would prove the problems of government are unsolvable rather than solve them)

FOUR people voted Trump and now regret it.


2 Clinton/Johnson
1 Clinton/Trump
1 Clinton/Kanye
1 Clinton/Gasarch

FIVE people voted Clinton and now regret it.

MISC changed

1 Underwood(House of Cards)/Satan (For those tired of picking the LESSER of two evils)
1 Stein/Clinton
1 Johnson/Clinton
1 Kruskal/Gasarch (some people can't tell them apart)

TWO people who voted third party now would have voted Clinton.
I interpret this as not-liking-Trump since I don't think Clinton
has done anything since the election to make anyone thing better
or worse of her, while as Trump as president has done enough
to change people's opinions of him.


  1. I think it is possible that someone who voted Clinton but would now vote differently is expressing that had they known Clinton was going to lose they would have voted for their favored third party candidate, but at the time thought that would be wasting their vote.

  2. The person who changed to Johnson voted Clinton because he/she thought Clinton needed the vote more. When they saw Clinton lost, they regretted not going with their preferred candidate Johnson.