A few weeks ago I took an Uber to a regional airport and was picked up by a Tesla. The driver used FSD, so-called Full Self-Driving, never touching the steering wheel during the entire trip. Should you tip a driver who just sits there? In the end I gave my usual tip and five-star rating. I figured the driver had to be there or the car wouldn't drive and he probably ponied up his own money for the FSD. I give five stars to any driver who gets me from point A to point B without major incident. Remember when five stars meant "above and beyond". Grade inflation gets us all.
But you can't tip Waymos. Last fall during a trip to San Francisco, I took my first Waymo ride. At one point a couple of people jaywalked in front of the Waymo and the Waymo promptly stopped. The car behind us started honking. Who are you honking at? It's a Waymo. It did drop me off at the wrong hotel but that's on me, who thought there would be two Hyatt Regency's in San Francisco.
In both cases the driving felt safer than the average Uber driver. It really is safer. About 40,000 people die in human-driven traffic crashes per year in the United States. But even a single accident could be devasting to a self-driving car company so they are designed to drive on the safer side. I have friends who see self-driving as the ultimate safety upgrade, especially as they lose fast reflexes as they age.
With new technologies (to paraphrase Hemingway), things generally move gradually than suddenly. Waymo and its rivals are expanding into several cities in the US (but not Chicago 😞) and robotaxis are all over China and across Asia. Cities like Shenzhen and Beijing have thousands of robotaxis operating daily, is the US falling behind? And why are we not seeing plans for self-driving cars in the midwest? Is it the weather, or just the usual blind spot technology companies have to this part of the country?
Nevertheless, I suspect we'll see the vast majority of ride-share as robotaxis by the end of the decade and cars without a steering wheel soon after that.
How long before "honking at a Waymo" produces an effect? Just saying.
ReplyDeleteIn my country most rent-an-electric-scooter companies pulled out after years of systematic scooter theft (that's what I've heard at least). I wonder if it will be the same for robotaxis.
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