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Monday, January 07, 2013

Do daughtered candidates to better- Look at the Data!

Someone in my election night party predicted Obama because:
Ever since women got the right to vote (1920) if one candidate has a daughter and one does not, then the one with the daughter won. This is because they know how to talk to women. Note that Obama has two daughters while Romney has 5 sons.

With Wikipedia and the web one can actually try to VERIFY the alleged FACT that daughtered candidates beat non-daughtered. If it was true then it would be much harder to verify the conjecture as to WHY its true. The full data is below but in a nutshell: From 1920 to 2012 there were 24 election. In EIGHT of them one candidate was daughtered and the other not. In FIVE of those the daughtered one won. Is this statistically significant? NO. It would take far more trials to determine if daughtered candidates do better. And even then one can note things like Roosevelt going for his third and fourth term was unstoppable so I don't think his having a daughter put him over the top. Also, times change. We will surely one day have a female candidate so that might change the dynamic as well. The problem with trends- once you figure them out they may no longer hold.

When doing a study like this you often find OTHER data of interest: ALL of the prez candidates since 1920 had children (Harding's child was a step-son but regarded Harding as his father, hence so do I.) I then looked up prez's without kids (I didn't look at candidates--- too much work) George Washington had step kids who regarded him as their father as well as the father of our country. James Madison, James Polk, James Buchanan (our only bachelor prez) didn't have kids. Of the SIX presidents named James (the others are James Monroe, James Garfield, and James Carter) THREE of them didn't have kids! Odd but NOT stat sig.

Lessons to draw from this--- (1) Don't believe everything you hear at election parties. (2) It's harder to make false claims at parties with Wikipedia and the Web around to verify (though political candidates seem to get away with it), (3) Daughtered is now a word. (4) Things that sound intuitively reasonable may still be false (5) If you look into claims that are false you may find other things of interest.

Here are the EIGHT:

  1. 2012: Obama vs Romney: Obama has 2 daughters, Romney has 5 sons. Winner: Obama (the one with the daughter)
  2. 1948: Dewey vs Truman: Dewey had 2 sons. Truman had 1 daughter. Winner: Truman (the one with the daughter)
  3. 1944: Dewey vs Roosevelt: Dewey had 2 sons. Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Winner: Roosevelt (the one with the daughter)
  4. 1940: Roosevelt vs Wilkie: Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Wilkie had 1 son. Winner: Roosevelt (the one with the daughter)
  5. 1932: Hoover vs Roosevelt: Hoover had 2 sons. Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Winner: Roosevelt (the one with the daughter)
  6. 1928: Hoover vs Smith: Hoover had 2 sons. Smith had 2 daughters and 3 sons. Winner: Hoover (the one without a daughter)
  7. 1924: Davis vs Coolidge: Coolidge had 2 sons. Davis had a daughter Winner: Coolidge (the one without a daughter)
  8. 1920: Cox vs Harding: Cox had 2 sons and 2 daughters, Harding had one step-son.
    Winner: Harding (the one without a daughter)
Here is the full data. A * means that it was daughtered vs non-daughtered and daughtered won. ** means it was daughtered vs non-daughtered and the non-daughtered won.
  1. 2012: Obama vs Romney: Obama has 2 daughters, Romney has 5 sons. Winner: Obama*
  2. 2008: Obama vs McCain: Obama has 2 daughters, McCain has 2 sons, 2 daughters. Winner: Obama.
  3. 2004: Bush vs Kerry: Bush has 2 daughters. Kerry has 2 daughters and 3 step-sons. Winner: Bush.
  4. 2000: Bush vs Gore: Bush has 2 daughters. Gore has 3 daughters and 1 son. Winner: Bush.
  5. 1996: Clinton vs Dole: Clinton has 1 daughter. Dole has 1 daughter. Winner: Clinton.
  6. 1992: Bush vs Clinton: Bush has 2 daughters and 4 sons. Clinton has 1 daughter. Winner: Clinton.
  7. 1988: Bush vs Dukakis: Bush has 2 daughters and 4 sons. Dukakis has 2 daughters and 1 son. Winner: Bush.
  8. 1984: Mondale vs Reagan: Mondale has 1 daughter and 1 son. Reagan has 2 daughters and 2 sons. Winner: Reagan.
  9. 1980: Carter vs Reagan: Carter has 1 daughter and 3 sons. Reagan has 2 daughters and 2 sons. Winner: Reagan.
  10. 1976: Carter vs Ford: Carter has 1 daughter and 3 sons. Ford has 1 daughter and 3 sons. Winner: Carter.
  11. 1972: McGovern vs Nixon: McGovern has 4 daughters and 1 son. Nixon had 2 daughters. Winner: Nixon.
  12. 1968: Humphrey vs Nixon: Humphrey had 1 daughter and 2 sons. Nixon had 2 daughters. Winner: Nixon.
  13. 1964: Goldwater vs Johnson: Goldwater had 2 daughters and 2 sons. Johnson had 2 daughters. Winner: Johnson
  14. 1960: Kennedy vs Nixon: Kennedy had 1 daughter and 2 sons. Nixon had 2 daughters Winner: Kennedy
  15. 1956: Eisenhower vs Stevenson: Eisenhower had 2 sons. Stevenson had 3 sons. Winner: Eisenhower.
  16. 1952: Eisenhower vs Stevenson: Eisenhower had 2 sons. Stevenson had 3 sons. Winner: Eisenhower.
  17. 1948: Dewey vs Truman: Dewey had 2 sons. Truman had 1 daughter. Winner: Truman*
  18. 1944: Dewey vs Roosevelt: Dewey had 2 sons. Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Winner: Roosevelt*
  19. 1940: Roosevelt vs Wilkie: Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Wilkie had 1 son. Winner: Roosevelt*
  20. 1936: Landon vs Roosevelt: Landon had 2 daughters. Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Winner: Roosevelt.
  21. 1932: Hoover vs Roosevelt: Hoover had 2 sons. Roosevelt had 1 daughter and 5 sons. Winner: Roosevelt*
  22. 1928: Hoover vs Smith: Hoover had 2 sons. Smith had 2 daughters and 3 sons. Winner: Hoover**
  23. 1924: Davis vs Coolidge: Davis had 1 daughter. Coolidge had 2 sons. Winner: Coolidge**
  24. 1920: Cox vs Harding: Cox had 2 sons and 2 daughters. Harding had 1 step son. Winner: Harding**

5 comments:

  1. So a male married candidate only knows how to talk to women if he has a daughter ? how did he meet his wife then ?

    ReplyDelete
  2. In other meaningless statistics about presidential candidates, since 1968 the major-party ticket with the shorter combined last names has won 8 times, and lost only 3 times (in 1976, 1992, and 1996). (There was only one name-length tie, in 2012.) Hypothesis: The average American presidential voter prefers not to remember long names.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gary Hart (who ran for Prez in the primaries in 1984 and 1988 as
      a democrat- never got the nomination) was born Gary Hartpence.
      He shortened his name--- to be more electable?

      Delete
  3. Humans are extremely high-dimensional, and we only have had 59 trials, which were definitely not I.I.D.

    http://xkcd.com/1122/

    ReplyDelete
  4. As always, there is a matching xkcd comic: http://xkcd.com/1122/

    ReplyDelete