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Thursday, July 29, 2021

Covid Stats


People take this as proof that once vaccinated no worries. But I have so many challenges with this statistic.
  • This statistic is down from 100% a year ago. Are vaccines working poorer now?
  • There are likely correlations to those vaccinated and those who take precautions like mask wearing and social distancing, though I'm sure which way those correlations go.
  • Those unvaccinated are more likely to be near others unvaccinated so more likely get infected and hospitalized.
Even though one shouldn't draw the conclusion from the statistic, that doesn't mean the conclusion is false. The gold standard are the double-blind vaccine trials which clearly showed the vaccines more efficient and safe. So get the vaccine, not that this blog post will convince those who have been making the conscious choice not to vaccinate to change their minds.

The other stat I found odd was that the life expectancy dropped 1.5 years in 2020. This doesn't mean on average we'll live 1.5 year less. Rather it means that someone who lives their whole life in 2020 conditions, widespread Covid without vaccines, would on average live 1.5 years less than someone who live their entire life in 2019 conditions pre-Covid.

Oddly enough if you made it to 2021 your life expectancy will probably increase (assuming you've been vaccinated). We made tremendous progress in understanding vaccine technology in 2020. Also people with conditions that could have limited their later life span were more likely to be fatal Covid victims, meaning those who are left would live longer.

3 comments:

  1. Sure, sure, we only need more "double blind" (on everything) :-D

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  2. Oh yay. Another political soapbox post here. I'm in favor of vaccinations but I don't visit here for this junk. You starting it sounding like you were an anti-vaxxer just makes it worse.

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  3. It is difficult to draw conclusions from statistics like that. For more on this, see

    https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2021/07/31/infections-in-vaccinated-americans-are-rare-compared-with-those-in-unvaccinated-people-but-when-they-occur-vaccinated-people-may-spread-the-virus-just-as-easily/

    > Rather it means that someone who lives their whole life in 2020 conditions,

    More precisely: "Period life tables estimate how many more years a group of people who are currently at a particular age - any age from birth to 100 or more - can expect to live if the mortality patterns in a given year remain the same over the rest of their lives."

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/life-expectancy.htm

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