Once the CR expires the whole NSF, and many other parts of government, will shut down. While I expect the sequestration to happen, most likely the CR will get extended.At NSF, the major impact of sequestration will be seen in reductions to the number of new research grants and cooperative agreements awarded in FY 2013. We anticipate that the total number of new research grants will be reduced by approximately 1,000. All continuing grant increments in FY 2013 will be awarded, as scheduled, and there will be no impact on existing NSF standard grants. It is also important to advise you that the Foundation is currently operating under a Continuing Resolution (CR) that will expire on March 27, 2013.
Meanwhile last week the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy issued a memo that will require most federally funded research to be publicly available after a year. The NSF and other agencies have six months to produce a plan. According to Farnam Jahanian (NSF CISE head), the NSF will work with close consultation with academics and associations in developing its plan which may not be the same for each discipline. Purely speculating, I'm guessing something akin to what the NIH does by establishing an open repository of research papers and requiring funded researchers to post copies of their papers in that repository.