The day before McCain picked Palin a pundit said the following: I don't know who it will be but INTRADE has had a big spike for Romney. INTRADE is always right, hence I predict that some insiders know that its Romney and that is who it will be
Well, INTRADE is not always right, even before the Palin Pick. And would an insider be guilty of insider trading? I predict that in the future VP will be one of those things INTRADE does badly on. Why? Because it is idiosyncratic. Picking the Prez Nominees is like picking the Oscar: small number of possibilities, and one has a sense of things. Picking the VP is like picking what movie Lance Fortnow favorite movie of 2008: too many possibilities, too ill defined (what if he saw a movie made in 1998 in the years 2008, does that count?) and too dependent on his mood.
In the past there was no INTRADE, but there was a short list of VPs. Below is a list of VP candidates (not including incumbents VPs) and whether I think they would have done well on INTRADE. My speculation is based mostly on if they would have been on the short list. I also include the Prez Candidate, the party, and WON/LOST. BADLY means would do badly on INTRADE. GOODLY means would do goodly on INTRADE. OKAY is inbetween.
- 2008: McCain picks Palin. Rep. BADLY.
- 2008: Obama picks Biden. Dem. GOODLY.
- 2004: Kerry picks Edwards. Dem. GOODLY. LOST
- 2000: Gore picks Lieberman. Dem. OKAY. LOST
- 2000: Bush picks Cheney. Rep. BADLY. (Cheney was head of VP selection committee, so really Cheney picked Cheney.) WON.
- 1996: Dole picks Kemp. Rep. BADLY. LOST
- 1992: Clinton picks Gore. Dem. OKAY. WON
- 1988: Bush picks Quayle. Rep. BADLY. WON
- 1988: Dukakis picks Bentson. Dem. OKAY. LOST
- 1984: Mondale picks Ferraro. Dem. BADLY. LOST
- 1980: Regean picks Bush. Rep. GOODLY. WON
- 1976: Ford picks Dole. Rep. OKAY. LOST
- 1976: Carter picks Mondale. Dem. OKAY. WON
- 1972: McGovern picks Eagleton/Shriver. Dem. BADLY. LOST
- 1968: Nixon picks Agnew. Rep. BADLY. WON
- 1968: Humphrey picks Muskie. Dem. GOODLY. LOST
- 1964: Goldwater picks Miller. Rep. BADLY. (Miller was in House not senate, so a surprise.) LOST
- 1960: Kennedy picks Johnson. Dem. GOODLY. WON
- 1956: Stevnson picks Kefauver. Dem. GOODLY. LOST. (Was serious contender for nomination.)
- 1952: Stevenson picks Sparkman. Dem. BADLY. Speculation- (Was not a contender for nomination.) LOST
- 1952: Eisenhower picks Nixon. BADLY. He was a 39 years old unknown at the time and a surprise. WON
- 10 BADLY, 8 GOODLY, 5 OKAY. INTRADE usually does much better than this.
- Dems: 6 GOODLY, 3 OKAY, 3 BADLY.
- Reps: 1 GOODLY, 1 OKAY, 6 BADLY.
- WINNERS: 2 GOODLY, 2 OKAY, 4 BADLY.
- LOSERS: 3 GOODLY, 3 OKAY, 5 BADLY.
As far as I know there is no insider trading prohibition on intrade. In general, when the goal is good predictions, insiders should be encouraged to trade.ReplyDelete