tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post7738986909842721225..comments2022-05-17T19:30:53.024-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Monty Hall (1921-2017) and His ProblemLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-40714800825135033492017-10-03T14:27:41.210-05:002017-10-03T14:27:41.210-05:00I find that very hard to believe.I find that very hard to believe.David Marcushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07084520656051241766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-90916450201037043442017-10-01T21:27:10.048-05:002017-10-01T21:27:10.048-05:00At the time I thought of a slight variant of the q...At the time I thought of a slight variant of the question that has a different answer. Suppose Monty Hall did not know in which door the car is, and he opens one of the other two doors randomly. Conditioned on seeing a goat, should you switch?<br /><br />The answer is that now the chances are 50-50.<br /><br />It really surprised me that in order to estimate the chances, the knowledge of the gameshow host should be taken into account.Avishayhttp://www.avishaytal.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-41991900617844629222017-10-01T18:32:30.524-05:002017-10-01T18:32:30.524-05:00I recall reading a biography of Erdos which mentio...I recall reading a biography of Erdos which mentioned that when he saw the Monty Hall problem he also though Marilyn was wrong and it took quite a while to convince him otherwise. Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06575946681848896414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-20098028574161437552017-10-01T14:56:21.389-05:002017-10-01T14:56:21.389-05:00The NYT column mentions three maths professors wri...The NYT column mentions three maths professors writing to her claiming she was wrong, and arguably three is many :-)ambarishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13439767125170516567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-38389726788246589462017-10-01T14:27:32.224-05:002017-10-01T14:27:32.224-05:00Do you have any evidence that "many mathemati...Do you have any evidence that "many mathematicians" wrote to Marilyn and told her that she was wrong? I have her columns. They don't give a detailed breakdown by area of expertise of the author. She says one letter telling her she is wrong is from a statistician at NIH. She quotes several letters from people with Ph.D.s and says that 65% of letters from universities disagree with her. The handful of mathematicians I discussed the problem with at the time all gave the correct answer.David Marcushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07084520656051241766noreply@blogger.com