tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post6912957599615000943..comments2024-03-28T18:17:00.135-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: A Great Time to be a Computer ScientistLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-77664471116130412632011-12-11T19:45:44.875-06:002011-12-11T19:45:44.875-06:00Ideally, self-driving cars (that can communicate w...Ideally, self-driving cars (that can communicate with each other in real time on the road) will provide several benefits: (1) lower accident rates; (2) faster travel (they will be able to drive in convoys, in effect simulating a train); (3) mobility for those with disabilities that currently prevent them from driving. Even those who can drive and enjoy driving will probably appreciate the option of switching to autopilot on long trips so that they can sleep or relax in other ways.Timothy Chowhttp://alum.mit.edu/www/tchownoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-78953818812856388022011-12-11T18:11:41.829-06:002011-12-11T18:11:41.829-06:00I suspect that by the time self-driving cars becom...I suspect that by the time self-driving cars become economically viable, individual vehicles will not be economically viable. Not just fossil-fuel vehicles, but energy costs will be so high that Americans will finally suck it up and demand decent mass transit systems.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-78141698042272733692011-12-11T03:51:05.117-06:002011-12-11T03:51:05.117-06:00I expect my current car to still be running in ten...I expect my current car to still be running in ten years. Why should I buy another one just so it can drive me around?JeffEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17633745186684887140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1265863453161849592011-12-10T23:00:50.273-06:002011-12-10T23:00:50.273-06:00Why spend $100K for a car that you won't drive...Why spend $100K for a car that you won't drive?!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-31558201503256866472011-12-10T10:10:00.896-06:002011-12-10T10:10:00.896-06:00wouldn't a good metro solve these problems?wouldn't a good metro solve these problems?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-36089783852814143052011-12-10T09:41:44.921-06:002011-12-10T09:41:44.921-06:00Do most car owners in the US hate driving their ca...<i>Do most car owners in the US hate driving their cars? </i><br /><br />You would too if it meant 70 minutes each way on bumper to bumper rush hour traffic.<br /><br />I'd rather read a book then. Also another big bonus of self-driven cars is less road fatalities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-40117098764288083202011-12-10T07:19:55.182-06:002011-12-10T07:19:55.182-06:00>Why is driver-less cars an exciting propositio...>Why is driver-less cars an exciting proposition? Do most car owners in the US hate driving their cars?<br /><br />Yes, we hate it--especially in Jersey.<br /><br />A fun application of driverless cars is less concern about parking: your car can just drop you off, and then pick you up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-5022986099854543952011-12-10T06:44:00.868-06:002011-12-10T06:44:00.868-06:00The timeline description of "quantum computin...The timeline description of "quantum computing" actually refers to when quantum computing will be used to introduce quantum mechanics in physics courses, not to when a quantum computer is available. Check it and see. I think the answer to when quantum computing will be used to introduce quantum mechanics is "never". I think if CS people took a few more physics courses then they would change their mind on this. There is a lot more to quantum mechanics than the abstract formalism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-18482916952388830822011-12-09T23:13:25.588-06:002011-12-09T23:13:25.588-06:00Why is driver-less cars an exciting proposition? D...Why is driver-less cars an exciting proposition? Do most car owners in the US hate driving their cars?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-83630502323913118182011-12-09T20:01:31.247-06:002011-12-09T20:01:31.247-06:00A car that cost $10,000 ten years ago will cost $1...<i>A car that cost $10,000 ten years ago will cost $15,000 today. </i><br /><br />Price range for Toyota Camry in 2001, adjusted for inflation: $22,597 - $33,528<br /><br />Prince range for Toyota Camry in 2011: $21,995 - $24,725<br /><br />and that is before we adjust for the fact that the lowest range 2011 Camry (~$22,000) has about as many features as a medium to upper end 2001 Camry ($28,000+).Moore's Lawnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-80517343755839019602011-12-09T17:26:16.246-06:002011-12-09T17:26:16.246-06:00we are talking sensors so looking at a Canon dSLR ...we are talking sensors so looking at a Canon dSLR isn't right<br /><br />2001 point and shoot 1.3mp camera = $300 to $350<br />2011 point and shoot 1.3mp camera = $10Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-71255714123159198602011-12-09T15:00:52.713-06:002011-12-09T15:00:52.713-06:00Your cost predictions are nonsense. For example, ...Your cost predictions are nonsense. For example, consider the Canon 300D, available 8.5 years ago for US$900. The cheapest Canon DSLR today is $560. Yes, there are cheaper ones, the cheapest being ~$300. So a three-fold reduction in cost. <br /><br />Where has that cost reduction come from? Digital camera sensors are much cheaper today, as are any electronic chips, memory for example. Manufacturing efficiencies, and moving manufacturing to cheaper countries is the rest of it. <br /><br />Even if Google's technology follows the same cost curve, it will still be in the $100,000 range. And it won't. Computer processors and some related technologies have decreased in cost exponentially, but almost nothing else has. A car that cost $10,000 ten years ago will cost $15,000 today. Those big laser scanners that Google is using aren't going to get much cheaper.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-56777419508285931932011-12-09T13:06:37.128-06:002011-12-09T13:06:37.128-06:00Ten years for these cost reductions is overly opti...<i>Ten years for these cost reductions is overly optimistic.</i><br /><br />Let's do the math.<br /><br />A digital camera bought ten years ago for $900 can be bought today for $30, most of which pays for the lenses.<br /><br />The cost per megaflop in the last ten years went down by a factor of $350. <br /><br />There are lots of other similar examples for ladar/radar sensors, CCDs, etc.<br /><br />Considering this one can project the sensor cost that you quote to be somewhere in the $5-14K range in ten years just like Lance conjectured.Moore's Lawnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-71750794419391934692011-12-09T12:29:47.446-06:002011-12-09T12:29:47.446-06:00Speaking from a purely medical point-of-view, the ...Speaking from a purely medical point-of-view, the recent literature amply documents that <a href="http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=871#comment-35711" rel="nofollow">quantum apples are health-promoting</a> and so (most likely) we are all going to end up eating quite a lot of these 21st century apples.John Sidleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16286860374431298556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-82446035909428892812011-12-09T12:08:48.598-06:002011-12-09T12:08:48.598-06:00In other news, an apple salesman predicts people w...In other news, an apple salesman predicts people will be eating more apples in the future...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-30482102385405142022011-12-09T11:57:03.791-06:002011-12-09T11:57:03.791-06:00Google's self-driving car right now has someth...Google's self-driving car right now has something like $300-400K in sensors attached to it. For it to start to go mass-market, they need to get down to $10-20K. Ten years for these cost reductions is overly optimistic. I give it ten years for the technology to get more practical, and another ten years for cost reductions. Maybe truckers, military and luxury vehicles will start to get this technology incorporated, though. In another twenty years, maybe the technology will start to become mass market and in another twenty years maybe it will be ubiquitous. But that's 60 years away (and everyone knows how reliable even a 20 year projection is). It is not responsible for computer scientists to propagate overly optimistic predictions like this. You'll just disappoint people. <br /><br />I am not sure of that, even. From their presentations, Google's technology seems to have fundamental limits. It is based on memorizing every detail of the roads, with a human driver running each route before the computer can. It cannot sense and react to new roads. This is still a huge technology, but I do not know if it really is enough. For example, a trucker driving across the country will come across sporadic highway construction, where lanes have been shifted, on short notice and not always in a well-marked way. <br /><br />About having a quantum computer at your desk. In the future---thirty years, maybe---none of us will have computers at our desks, anyway. Computers and computer displays will be ubiquitous and highly networked. Quantum computers will be in super-computers as part of the cloud. Simulating quantum physics is obviously a big deal, but once we have quantum computers I'd expect them to be used even for problems without an exponential speedup. These algorithms have not been studied as much. It is hard to do good applied algorithms research without a computer. (Not impossible, hard.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-15218524573543247552011-12-09T11:29:11.480-06:002011-12-09T11:29:11.480-06:00I think the most promising application of quantum ...I think the most promising application of quantum computers remains the first one ever proposed: simulating quantum systems. Right now this task accounts for a large fraction of supercomputer time, and the approximations we get are still very imperfect.aram harrowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01272118188252697149noreply@blogger.com