tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post6502532338994378472..comments2024-03-28T17:47:19.992-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Random thoughts about the electionLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-40100246781228854742008-11-06T10:43:00.000-06:002008-11-06T10:43:00.000-06:001) Nagesh: YES, I am only saying that is why I pes...1) Nagesh: YES, I am only saying that is why I pesonally don't study these things. This is not a value judgement on what anyone else chooses to study.<BR/><BR/><BR/>2) Anon 7: The IF-THEN statement<BR/>``If we were more clearly winning the Iraq War then<BR/>John McCain might have won<BR/>the election.'' is NOT<BR/>an endorsement of the war<BR/>or a statement that contradicts that it has<BR/>been a horrible thing.GASARCHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06134382469361359081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-36016102144068570772008-11-06T07:50:00.000-06:002008-11-06T07:50:00.000-06:00I think the reason for (1) is psychological: it's ...I think the reason for (1) is psychological: it's easy to be gracious in defeat and people naturally feel sorry for the defeated and like and admire people who appear gracious in defeat.David Pennockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06369172924419106987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-33064320844305128912008-11-05T22:27:00.000-06:002008-11-05T22:27:00.000-06:001."...and we were more clearly winning the Iraq Wa...1."...and we were more clearly winning the Iraq War..."<BR/><BR/>A country is destroyed and half million people were killed, and yet the only thing you felt regret about is not "more clearly winning". Excuse me, Professor Gasarch, I never held any hope for the humanity of US, but a comment like this from an intellectual in this country, just taught me how coldblood the americans could be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-83672607303630097512008-11-05T15:12:00.000-06:002008-11-05T15:12:00.000-06:00The roles of both campaigns may be even smaller. I...The roles of both campaigns may be even smaller. I would say it was 90% reality (i.e., economics), and 5% per each campaign. McCain seemed to have gained momentum and broken even with Obama right before the stock market crashed. <BR/><BR/>Given all the hoopla about the "epic election", and superior funding/organizing advantages of Obama's campaign, it would be surprising that the voting statistics are kind of ordinary ( please check ttp://www.stat.columbia.edu)/~gelman/blog/).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-59436769646004689232008-11-05T13:02:00.000-06:002008-11-05T13:02:00.000-06:00Given the closeness of many of the state elections...<I>Given the closeness of many of the state elections, it seems that a McCain-Lieberman ticket might have won. </I><BR/><BR/>This is a fallacious argument, since it counts the increase in centrist voters but fails to count the decrease in religious voters who love Palin and hence voted for McCain but hate pro-choice Lieberman and would have stayed home for the election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-91824899925339365982008-11-05T12:55:00.000-06:002008-11-05T12:55:00.000-06:00This is why I study math. Math has well defined qu...<EM>This is why I study math. Math has well defined questions that (for the most part) have answers (though we may not know them yet). But the question why did Obama win? can't really be asked rigorouly or answered definitively. One can even criticize how I phrased it- should I have asked why did McCain lose??</EM><BR/><BR/>Bill I think it's important that we don't just study well-defined questions but study relevant questions that are ill-defined. We need life, leaders, politics to be able to have fun of studying well-defined questions.<BR/><BR/>I am not saying everyone should do everything. Different people are meant for different things.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08122513285361130315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-73173747933613547892008-11-05T12:39:00.000-06:002008-11-05T12:39:00.000-06:00Could a Republican have won this year? Given the c...<EM>Could a Republican have won this year?</EM> <BR/><BR/>Given the closeness of many of the state elections, it seems that a McCain-Lieberman ticket might have won. (McCain-XXX with XXX anyone other than Palin may also have had a shot.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-80294368156730492732008-11-05T11:32:00.000-06:002008-11-05T11:32:00.000-06:00Re 1: i didn't like the part of his speech where h...Re 1: i didn't like the part of his speech where he mentions the "special significance" of this election for african americans. sounds like he's saying obama won because of his race.<BR/><BR/>Re 5: i think you're over estimating the role of mccain's campaign. i'd say it was 30% obama's campaign, 65% reality (i.e., economics), and 5% mccain (most importantly, his choice of vp).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-65954225311165912432008-11-05T11:26:00.000-06:002008-11-05T11:26:00.000-06:00I think (5) can be asked and answered, in a sense....I think (5) can be asked and answered, in a sense. There is an an analogous concept in the financial world where you can view a company as belonging to various categories and see how the stock price is correlated to those categories. I.e. Microsoft would roughly track large US companies in general, but there's also a component for the tech sector, risk of stronger antitrust laws, perception of Bill Gates, etc. You can calculate the correlation coefficients over any time range where you have samples for every variable.<BR/><BR/>I think you could model the "reality" component with something like the S&P 500 and poll numbers for public support of Bush and the war. A political scientist could probably point out a metric for the efficacy of each campaign.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com