tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post6245820655617148057..comments2021-04-20T09:52:56.297-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Do 50-1 longshots in the Kentucky Derby ever come in?Lance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-38189165578926271872012-06-15T17:07:28.913-05:002012-06-15T17:07:28.913-05:00And I used to think betting was illegal in the US....And I used to think betting was illegal in the US.circenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-10945883023674092932012-06-14T15:27:03.832-05:002012-06-14T15:27:03.832-05:00The prob that a 91-1 shot would NEVER come in afte...The prob that a 91-1 shot would NEVER come in after 138 races is (1 - 1/91)138 which is roughly 0.217647740202952.<br /><br />Not even roughly. That would be the right formula if each Derby had exactly one 91-1 shot. The probability that a long shot will win depends on the number of long shots.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11328704710466486487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-90436508850835409332012-06-14T13:00:45.398-05:002012-06-14T13:00:45.398-05:00For horseracing I'd think Bill Ziemba's wo...For horseracing I'd think Bill Ziemba's work is important, but at the end of the day unless one can make real money out of it, nothing matters.Richardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-86863249928877042682012-06-14T11:44:14.175-05:002012-06-14T11:44:14.175-05:00The runner's up for this year's mathematic...The runner's up for this year's mathematics of gambling paper goes to ``How to gamble if you're in a hurry'' by Evangelos Georgiadis, Doron Zeilberger and Shalosh Ekhad. It appears that Dave's latest work/paper got inspired by it. All very interesting stuff.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com