tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post109206677912331781..comments2023-01-27T04:55:29.157-06:00Comments on Computational Complexity: MicromortsLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092176431936824972004-08-10T17:20:00.000-05:002004-08-10T17:20:00.000-05:00However, the lecture on Poisson processes and hitt...However, the lecture on Poisson processes and hitting times should make it sensible once more...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092158659344497902004-08-10T12:24:00.000-05:002004-08-10T12:24:00.000-05:00I think there's more than a little danger in makin...I think there's more than a little danger in making such subjective assessments seem so scientific. This kind of comparison falls safely under what I would call pseudo-science, used as you propose.<br /><br />Not that there isn't value in the attempt to make very subjective comparisons more quantitative, but to suppose that we can use this kind of method as the basis for an entire policy is, I think, irresponsible. At the very least, it ignores the sources of the cited statistics, along with all kinds of problems of numerical analysis.<br /><br />For example, what if I started "saving up" my micromorts for an especially dangerous activity? The first lecture of any undergraduate probability course will tell you that that kind of behavior is nonsense, but it makes perfect sense if you're trying to "spend 3 micromorts a day."<br /><br />Just some thoughts,<br /><br />EricAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092156057110172872004-08-10T11:40:00.000-05:002004-08-10T11:40:00.000-05:00Considering the number of lap children who die but...Considering the number of lap children who die but who's parents didn't die makes sense. However, comparing the number of lap children who die but whos parents didn't die to the number of adult drivers who died in car accidents doesn't make sense. <br /><br />First, I'm assuming that children die at a different rate in car accidents than drivers (there's more air bag protection for drivers, etc). Then there's also the fact that you're comparing the number of children who would be saved by the change with the total number of people who would die in cars. In one case you're considering the total, and in the other only the marginal value.Brian Postowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04426675383041390587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092136104910845782004-08-10T06:08:00.000-05:002004-08-10T06:08:00.000-05:00No, I think the statistics are correct. He's tryin...No, I think the statistics are correct. He's trying to determine if the <I>decrease</I> in risk for airline lap babies is offset by the increased risk for car babies. We assume that the special seat would make them approximately as safe as their parents are. Considering cases in the past where both the child and parent died would not be a useful statistic, because those children would be dead even if the new seats were introduced. The children who would have been saved by the new seats are precisely those who have died, but whose parents survived the crash. Using the parents is a good measure; it eliminates other factors like how far the victim's seat is from the point of impact.<br /><br />And the number of children who can be saved by the child seats gives us the decrease in risk.Nitishhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07554352128342702471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092101039985375432004-08-09T20:23:00.000-05:002004-08-09T20:23:00.000-05:00Baby seat or no baby seat, I say there needs to be...Baby seat or no baby seat, I say there needs to be some economic penalty for bringing babies onto plane flights considering how unpleasant they make everyone else's trips.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-1092073823987304342004-08-09T12:50:00.000-05:002004-08-09T12:50:00.000-05:00The statistics you stated are flawed I think. You ...The statistics you stated are flawed I think. You compare the odds of the average driver dying in a car trip to the odds of a lap child dying but their parent NOT dying. The more meaningful comparison would be of a car seated child dying, to a lap seated child dying on a plane, whether or not the parent died in both cases.Brian Postowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04426675383041390587noreply@blogger.com