tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post2164203448944404159..comments2024-03-27T19:58:17.387-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Fifty Years of Moore's LawLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-85458975014176641702015-04-26T22:33:16.320-05:002015-04-26T22:33:16.320-05:00As far as younger readers of Computational Complex...As far as <i>younger</i> readers of <i>Computational Complexity</i> (and related weblogs) are concerned --- readers in need of family-supporting career-sustaining jobs --- the main news of the past month is arguably not the Roco/Li-Yang complexity hierarchy theorem (marvelously ingenious as this theorem is), but rather <b><a href="http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2015/04/03/sanofi_bets_on_schrodinger.php" rel="nofollow">the $120M/5yr investment by the Swiss-based pharmaceutical corporation Sanofi</a></b> in the Portland-based quantum simulation corporation Schrödinger.<br /><br />Roughly speaking, that's a large enough investment to support (very approximately) five hundred person-years of complexity-theoretic research. <br /><br />The enterprise rationale for this investment reflects sustained Moore's Law-type progress not only in computing hardware, but also in storage, networking, sensing, and (most of all) algorithms.<br /><br />It is instructive to project the levels of job-creating investment that will result if this progress is sustained. Sanofi's $120M quantum-simulation investment is about 0.000875 of Sanofi's market capitalization (presently ~$137B). The aggregate market capitalization of the ten largest pharmaceutical corporations is ~$1.36T (Pfizer, Novartis, Sanofi, Roche, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline, AstraZeneca, Eli Lilly, Abbott, and McKesson), and so a bandwagon of investment by top-rank pharmaceutical corporations would yield a near-term quantum-simulation research investment of ~$1.2B/5yr. <br /><br />Further increases in algorithmic accuracy and efficiency, sustained through coming decades, would amply justify further increases in research investment — increases potentially of multiple orders of magnitude.<br /><br /><b>Conclusion</b> Research news this month provides ample "Moore's Law" reason for young researchers in complexity theory and quantum simulation theory to be optimistic about job and career prospects.<br /><br /><i>Provided</i> that increases in algorithmic efficiency, simulation accuracy, sensing capability, and computational economy, all can be sustained at their historic Moore's Law pace.John Sidleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16286860374431298556noreply@blogger.com