tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post1205412030707863578..comments2024-03-29T08:55:55.727-05:00Comments on Computational Complexity: Rank these possibilities by probabilityLance Fortnowhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06752030912874378610noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-74930460333134565672012-02-03T21:13:43.124-06:002012-02-03T21:13:43.124-06:00LOW
works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes
a ...LOW<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br />a kindergarten teacher<br />a psychiatric social worker<br />an insurance salesperson<br />a bank teller<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />an active feminist<br />HIGHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-3130752002424891442012-01-10T09:56:12.569-06:002012-01-10T09:56:12.569-06:00My preliminary guess was that close to half of the...My preliminary guess was that close to half of the respondents would mark "bank teller and active feminist" as more probable than either of "bank teller" or "active feminist" alone. This would be consistent with previous research in cognitive biases.Dragohttp://www.eecs.umich.edunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-85686743465863321962012-01-10T07:46:42.215-06:002012-01-10T07:46:42.215-06:00For some reason, this reminds me of a question tha...For some reason, this reminds me of a question that Bill G. once posed me:<br /><br />Bill: There are 30 faculty in our dept. What is the probability that some two of them share a birthday?<br /><br />Me: Umm...65%?<br /><br />Bill: No, it's probability 1 since there <em>are</em> two faculty in our dept. who share a birthday.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-19731920767972762212012-01-10T04:54:15.719-06:002012-01-10T04:54:15.719-06:00With the ranking period now almost done, let's...With the ranking period now almost done, let's see if we can guess <i>why</i> GASARCH regards this question as being interesting. <br /><br />My own guess is that GASARCH is interested in how humans rank probabilities in comparison to how WATSON ranks probabilities.<br /><br />In particular, we have the following mathematically rigorous ordering constraint:<br /><br />LOWER PROBABILITY<br />(8) bank teller and feminist<br />(having strictly lower probability than each of)<br />(3) bank teller<br />(6) feminist<br />HIGHER PROBABILITY<br /><br />But that is not how humans think -- humans instinctively aggregate probabilities into narratives. That is why some of the guesses on this post have illogically ranked (8) as having higher probability than (6) and/or (3). <br /><br />My guess as to the point of GASARCH's post is simply this: <i>IBM's Watson ranks probabilities illogically too</i>, and thus (in effect) incorporates some kind of human-type narrative synthesis algorithm. And moreover (my guess is that) this illogical-ranking algorithm has turned out to be <i>essential</i> to Watson's overall answer-guessing capacity.<br /><br />The common-sense point being, that future generations of Watson will need a narrative-construction skill if it is ever to function effectively in providing medical diagnostic services. Perhaps for IBM, the surprising lesson of the <i>Jeopardy</i> challenge has been that probability-ranking algorithms are wholly inadequate to the task of constructing explanatory narratives.John Sidleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16286860374431298556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-30074786548736745422012-01-10T01:31:41.154-06:002012-01-10T01:31:41.154-06:00Low
an active feminist
a member of the Si...Low<br /><br /> an active feminist<br /> a member of the Sierra club<br /> a psychiatric social worker<br /> a bank teller and an active feminist <br /> an insurance salesperson<br /> a bank teller<br /> works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /> a kindergarden teacher<br /><br /> HighAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-43375529086293758682012-01-10T00:32:19.632-06:002012-01-10T00:32:19.632-06:00I don't understand the question ?
rank answer ...I don't understand the question ?<br />rank answer choices by probability ? but wat is the question ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-24066538730186235452012-01-09T22:01:53.230-06:002012-01-09T22:01:53.230-06:00Lo<7<6<8<1<2<4<5<3<HiLo<7<6<8<1<2<4<5<3<HiJim Blairnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-43764985523880495782012-01-09T20:12:33.757-06:002012-01-09T20:12:33.757-06:00LOW
works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes
a...LOW<br /><br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br /><br />a psychiatric social worker<br />a kindergarden teacher<br />a bank teller<br />an insurance salesperson<br /><br />a member of the Sierra club<br /><br />an active feminist<br /><br />HIGHJasonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-74225460295604207872012-01-09T17:52:55.956-06:002012-01-09T17:52:55.956-06:00high to low
8 1 2 4 3 6 5 7high to low<br />8 1 2 4 3 6 5 7Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-65324049036067378752012-01-09T17:38:37.515-06:002012-01-09T17:38:37.515-06:00LOW
7. an insurance salesperson
1. a kindergarden...LOW<br /><br />7. an insurance salesperson<br />1. a kindergarden teacher<br />4. a psychiatric social worker <br />6. a bank teller <br />8. a bank teller and an active feminist <br />2. works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes <br />3,5. an active feminist, a member of the Sierra club <br /><br />HIGHCorrect Answernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-89076425357230665432012-01-09T15:42:55.149-06:002012-01-09T15:42:55.149-06:00LOW
dentist
presidential candidate
basketball pla...LOW<br /><br />dentist<br />presidential candidate<br />basketball player<br />pediatrician<br />journalist<br />mechanical engineer<br />senator<br />tennis player<br /><br />HIGHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-9269935674187615292012-01-09T15:35:48.532-06:002012-01-09T15:35:48.532-06:00LOW
a kindergarten teacher
an insurance salesperso...LOW<br />a kindergarten teacher<br />an insurance salesperson<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />a bank teller<br />a psychiatric social worker<br />an active feminist<br />HIGHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-5479243238603241702012-01-09T14:09:12.166-06:002012-01-09T14:09:12.166-06:00I'll take a stab at a subset, the job she has....I'll take a stab at a subset, the job she has. While its possible to get a teaching certificate or a psych degree, you don't mention anything beyond the philosophy degree (though it seems that anyone majoring in philosophy is going to have a vocation NOT in philosophy WHP); so low to high:<br /><br />psychiatric social worker<br />kindergarten teacher<br />an insurance salesperson<br />bank teller<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /><br />The top three don't require any degrees so I ranked them more likely. Unfortunately, you placed two seemingly independent events (vocation and personal interests) into one choice, but I'll ignore it for now. <br /><br />Independently considering the rest, low to high:<br /><br />bank teller and active feminist<br />an active feminist<br />a Sierra Club member<br /><br />The conventional wisdom might say that banking and feminism may be incompatible, but we're only talking about a teller position, not a CEO or someone in a position to cause real harm. Sierra Club membership is "easy": donate a few bucks and you're a member; you did not say "active" member so I assume that since its "easy" it has a higher probability.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-2289403440422746472012-01-09T12:59:29.371-06:002012-01-09T12:59:29.371-06:00LOW
a bank teller
a bank teller and an active fem...LOW<br /><br />a bank teller<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br />an insurance salesperson<br />a kindergarten teacher<br />a psychiatric social worker<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />an active feminist<br /><br />HIGHrwebahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03128005962472194043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-87822254525103451402012-01-09T12:23:41.458-06:002012-01-09T12:23:41.458-06:00HIGH
a kindergarden teacher
a psychiatric...HIGH<br /> a kindergarden teacher <br /> a psychiatric social worker<br /> a bank teller<br /> works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /> a member of the Sierra club <br /> an insurance salesperson<br /> an active feminist<br /> a bank teller and an active feminist <br />LOW<br /><br />I think there is almost no correlation between Susan's believes while studying and a job she lands. So tried to sort it assuming her competence and likelihood of jobs and convictions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-54565178850787706272012-01-09T11:49:36.167-06:002012-01-09T11:49:36.167-06:00Sorry people, my prognosis is more pessimistic:
a...Sorry people, my prognosis is more pessimistic:<br /><br />a member of the Sierra club<br />an active feminist<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a kindergarden teacher<br />a bank teller<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br />an insurance salesperson<br />a psychiatric social workerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-44029374080298158872012-01-09T10:55:08.593-06:002012-01-09T10:55:08.593-06:00a kindergarden teacher
works in a bookstore an...a kindergarden teacher<br /> works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /> an active feminist<br /> a bank teller<br /> an insurance salesperson<br /> a bank teller and an active feminist<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />a psychiatric social workerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-30161406136395567502012-01-09T10:44:58.481-06:002012-01-09T10:44:58.481-06:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Davehttp://www.dna.caltech.edu/~ddoty/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-80647519070855169632012-01-09T10:23:38.947-06:002012-01-09T10:23:38.947-06:00my list, now with estimates:
2-3 orders of magnit...my list, now with estimates:<br /><br />2-3 orders of magniture smaller than the top choice below:<br /><br /> a bank teller and an active feminist<br /><br />1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than the top choice below:<br /><br /> an active feminist<br /> a member of the Sierra club<br /><br />1 order of magnitude smaller than the top choice below:<br /><br /> works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /> <br />slightly less likely than the top choice below:<br /><br /> a psychiatric social worker<br /> a bank teller<br /> an insurance salesperson<br /><br />top choice (on the order of 1-2%)<br /> <br /> a kindergarden teacherDragohttp://www.eecs.umich.edu/~radevnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-34927172832908046422012-01-09T10:21:16.936-06:002012-01-09T10:21:16.936-06:00Low
- an insurance salesperson
- a bank teller
- ...Low <br />- an insurance salesperson<br />- a bank teller<br />- a kindergarden teacher<br />- a psychiatric social worker<br />- a bank teller and an active feminist <br />- works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />- a member of the Sierra club<br />- an active feminist<br />High<br /><br />There is a mixture between vocation and beliefs embedded that make it a little hard to balance nicely. I assumed the lack of information was relevant, and that the order of the description was important.<br /><br />Just a guess :-)<br /><br />Paul.Paul W. Homerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02349253120538728302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-5818758300889120112012-01-09T10:01:23.060-06:002012-01-09T10:01:23.060-06:00Susan does not have a PhD or a Masters or a Bachel...Susan does not have a PhD or a Masters or a Bachelors in Comp Sci or math. Don't try to outthink the question.GASARCHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06134382469361359081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-21675562398430210252012-01-09T09:53:38.589-06:002012-01-09T09:53:38.589-06:00a bank teller and an active feminist
an active fem...a bank teller and an active feminist<br />an active feminist<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />a psychiatric social worker<br />a bank teller<br />an insurance salesperson<br />a kindergarden teacher<br /><br />(Drago)Dragohttp://www.eecs.umich.edu/~radevnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-87440408598032227652012-01-09T09:39:10.861-06:002012-01-09T09:39:10.861-06:00It's clear that Anonymous at 9:18am is trollin...It's clear that Anonymous at 9:18am is trolling, saying that women will marry and not work.<br /><br />My ranking:<br /><br />low<br /><br />an insurance salesperson<br />a member of the Sierra club<br />a kindergarden teacher<br />works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br />an active feminist<br />a bank teller<br />a psychiatric social worker<br />a bank teller and an active feminist<br /><br />high<br /><br />Perhaps this is a trick question and Susan is actually a PhD in computer science. (Yes, I know at least one philosophy major who is now an assistant professor of computer science.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-35584122737531444792012-01-09T09:37:34.794-06:002012-01-09T09:37:34.794-06:00LOW
A bank teller and an active feminist
A b...LOW<br /> A bank teller and an active feminist<br /> A bank teller<br /> Works in a bookstore and takes yoga classes<br /> A kindergarden teacher<br /> A member of the Sierra club <br /> A psychiatric social worker<br /> An active feminist<br /> An insurance salesperson<br />HIGHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3722233.post-54301160093438602942012-01-09T09:21:44.375-06:002012-01-09T09:21:44.375-06:00`Can you please make the post clear...'
I mea...`Can you please make the post clear...'<br /><br />I mean the probabilities that SHE is<br />a kindergarden teacher, etc.GASARCHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06134382469361359081noreply@blogger.com