Tuesday, November 13, 2012

If GASARCH Tweeted what would he tweet?

If I tweeted this is what I would tweet:
1. The problem with trying to predict who will win the election.
2. Prez election thought: if you run as yourself and lose (Stevenson, Goldwater, McGovern) then you have your integrity and got some discussions started. If you run as someone else (George W Bush ran as a moderate) and win then you have the presidency. If you run as someone else and lose you have nothing. Now that he's lost Will the real Mitt Romny please stand up?.
3. My bet on Ryan being the Republican Nominess in 2016 (if I am right I get \$10.00, if I am wrong I lose \$3.00) is close to the odds here. Are you surprised they already have this up? I'm surprised INTRADE doesn't have this bet up yet.
4. An APP based on my 17x17 challenge: here
5. Most bloggers don't last: see here
6. An Origami proof of the Pythagorean theorem: here
7. I got three emails in two minutes about a talk on how to avoid spam.
8. Its official! Physics is hard
9. A paper is retracted because it has no scientific content: here.
10. Is this a real question or a joke or both?
11. Julia Child was born Aug 15, 1912 and died Aug 13, 2004. Almost born and died the same day. What is the probability that someone is born and dies on the same day? This is not hard, but might make a good problem.
12. The most common PIN number is 1234 with 11% of all PIN numbers. This is alarming but not surprising. The least common PIN number is 8068. Here is the article on it.
13. Do e-books make censorship easier or harder? I still don't know; however, here is an example where it was easier, though calling it censorship isn't quite right.
14. Movies have low Kolm Complexity: here
15. One sign that you've been working on a paper too long- right before submitting it you realize that most of the authors have changed their affiliations and emails. (This happened to me recently.)

1. BTW, Bill's bet is with me. The worst oddsmaker is paying 3.5 to 1. Bill was only asking for 3.33 to 1. I had to take it. :-)

BTW, 3.5 to 1 translates to 22% chance. The best oddsmaker is paying 5 to 1, which translates to 17% chance. Bill's odds translate to 23% chance. Also note the oddsmakers will generally overestimate a candidate's chance slightly, to keep a profit margin.

2. For reference in four years:

Bill is going to owe me \$3 in 2016 as well! :)

3. 11. Sadly, I think this number is dominated by your chance of dying in the first 24 hours of life, which is about 1 in 130 according to this article.
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/2/08-050963/en/index.html

I would be that the contribution from years 1, 2, 3, .. is close to 1/365.

4. Elections followed by Veterans Day made me think of the flag. I asked my 9-year-old daughter how many stars were in the US flag. She correctly answered 50. I asked, so that would be 10 rows of 5 stars? Yes she responded quickly. Oh really? I said, only to be demolished by her reply, "Well, you wouldn't necessarily call them rows."